History is littered with examples of convergence for convenience. It’s what we do, right? We take two or more things, duct tape ‘em together, and (theoretically) make a better, more versatile thing as a result. I don’t think it’s too crazy to say that our tolerance for single-function tools is bookended by all the combo-inventions in our past, from the spork to the clock radio – and that tolerance is shrinking as the pace of technological progress has quickened.

Nowhere is this more evident than with our media and methods of communication, which are converging in geometrically accelerating cycles. A quick review of history shows us a pattern of each advance serving as an integral steppingstone to the birth of the next generation of communication tools. Allow me to elaborate:

First Cycle

• The printed newspaper, invented 1436
• The ‘Silent Pictures,’ invented 1888
• Radio, invented 1896

» Coexisted for 29 years before converging into the Television, invented 1925

Second Cycle

• Telephone, invented 1876
• Radio, invented 1896
• Silicon Chip, invented 1958

» Coexisted for 15 years before converging into the Cellphone, invented 1973

Third Cycle

• Cellphone, invented 1973
• Digital Camera, invented 1981
• PDA, invented 1983
• The Internet, invented 1983

» Coexisted for 10 years before converging into the Smartphone, invented 1993

Can you see where this is going yet? Well, hold on to your propeller hats, this is where it gets interesting.

It was in the late ’90s that the Internet really began to serve as a major communications vehicle, enabling people to share ideas and collaborate in ways that only spurred on these cycles of innovation and convergence:

Fourth Cycle

• IM, invented mid-1960s
• Email, invented 1965
• Search engines, invented 1991
• Blogs, invented 1994
• Web-based Forums, invented 1996
• RSS, invented 2002

» Coexisted for 4 years before converging into Twitter, invented 2006

Which brings us to today. Within a month or so, Google is poised to release what many are calling the next iteration of communications technology, named Google Wave. Concise definitions of what it actually is are hard to come by, which makes sense, because I think it’s basically the culmination of 573 years of media convergence (there, was that concise enough for you?):

Fifth Cycle

• IM, invented mid-1960s
• Web-based Email, invented 1995
• Wikis, invented 1995
• Facebook, invented 2004
• Twitter, invented 2006

» Coexisted for 3 years before converging into Google Wave, invented 2009

So where is this all heading? As with any trend, there’s always uncertainty just beyond the horizon. That said, it’s possible that each of these previous cycles have been building to one grand cycle that we can see happening right now:

Grand Cycle

• Written (Offline) information, invented 4th millennium, BC
• Digital (Online) information, invented 1937

» Coexisted for 62 years before converging into Augmented Reality, invented 1999

My advice? Don’t blink, because the next decade is going to be one hell of a ride.

What do you think? Any ideas as to what will be the result of the next media convergence cycle? Make yourself heard in the comments!